Quincy

I really didn’t think the popular vote and electoral vote were going to be this close. I know a lot of city votes are still to be counted, but this is saddening. I’m trying to not follow every single update too closely, it’s unnerving. But there are a lot of outstanding votes in blue counties in Michigan, so there’s that.

PA is notoriously slow. They will almost certainly take another day or two to count votes. (Unless she keeps a large lead, then mathematically the outstanding votes may not matter)

Heads up, before anyone freaks out, central Plains states are closing and Trump is gonna win most of those. Including the big chunk in Texas…

If she takes either of those states, it’s probably over. But I agree that NC is really not that important. There’s a huge red wall in the South this election

It’s early. She’s going to sweep the West Coast, California is 54 votes alone

Geographically, Wichita is in the eastern half of the state. That’s what I’m talking about. Once you get west of I-135, it’s probably 80-90% Trump, as there are very few cities at all. I spend a lot of time in Kansas. Fun fact, Kansas City is a city in both Kansas and Missouri, but the MO KC is much larger and is usually mistaken to be in Kansas.

Kansas is like Texas. Eastern parts of those states have larger cities and are more blue. Western parts are extremely rural and some are in Mountain Time. Possibly polls closing later? In 2020 Biden was winning Texas for a while too, but that changed big time once West Texas started reporting. Summary as I see it: So far, Trump is over performing in Florida. That’s mildly concerning. Virginia is very tight that waves some red flags too. Georgia is mixed. Individual county results suggest similar results for both candidates. On the other hand, Pennsylvania and North Carolina may be leaning more blue than expected, but it’s still early. I say it’s a wash. No clear winner by any means. Wouldn’t it be wild if it actually does come down to Iowa (I doubt it) BUT, we may see women in the Midwest play a huge role in some of those swing states. I just got to a hotel in NYC and I’m stuffing my face, didn’t eat all day cuz I was traveling, trying to get caught up, but I had to give my Lipsters my $0.02

Some states have changed the way they count early ballots, like Georgia. I’m hearing that most of the early vote will be released right after the polls close there, as a result of a new law. This wasn’t the case in 2020. Florida also counts them promptly. Other states do drag their feet. Be ready for back and forth. It sounds like early vote MIGHT favor Harris, thanks in large part to women voting and conspiracies on the right about mail in voting. On the other hand, day-of voting seems to skew Republican a bit. Finally, in 2020 the early returns looked good for Trump, but then there was a “blue wave” of mail in votes in swing states that took a while to get counted. If it is a landslide, we could have results before the night is over. Based on consensus and other recent elections, the most probable timetable is a day or two, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we know early.

If it’s a landslide, we could know by this time Tuesday night. (If Kamala is winning East Coast swing states like PA and NC and others are trending that way, a call could be made just hours after the polls close)

Lame duck just means he can’t get elected again for a 3rd term. (Unless the Republicans try to change that ) Obama was a lame duck going into the 2016 election.

What incentive do they have to change if he wins again? I think it’s the opposite.

If Trump wins, it’s going to enable republicans to go even more hardcore MAGA. I wouldn’t be surprised if Don Jr. runs for office as a result. Since daddy Donny boy will be in a lame duck term and old af, he’s going to be way more unhinged than anyone can fathom. On the other hand, if he loses, I think the right has to change course. Or maybe it will further divide the party.

voting endorsement

Eagerly awaiting your final endorsement, no cap

You been very lukewarm about Harris

Never thought I’d hear you make the most eloquent case against Trump

It’s still tight. The Iowa poll is a shocker, but also not completely surprising. The sad thing is, there are still a lot of tossup states. But if Iowa is close or even Texas… Demographics are slowly shifting. I really doubt she makes Texas close, but she could eek out Iowa. I think in order of most likely outcomes, it’s 1. Slight Harris victory 2. Slight Trump victory 3. Harris landslide Multiple data points suggest Kamala wins in a landslide, but I’m really being cautiously pessimistic. Trump has been an anomaly in elections and polling over the past 8-9 years. It’s hard to gauge. But it is hard to deny that many high level republicans are throwing support behind the democrat. That should be a signal by itself.

Marina-96 Nirvana-22 Kate Bush-109 Fiona Apple —20

Jill Stein’s VP Opens the Door to a National Abortion Ban

I submitted by absentee ballot today. In person, because I’m paranoid. There were a lot of people voting early. I hope turnout is big! We need more people involved in the political system, even though it’s easy to be apathetic about it all.

You might find this informative

I’ve kept out of this thread today until I listened to the Rogan podcast. I’m about 30 minutes in and Trump is just low energy rambling. I can see why some people find him charming or whatever because he doesn’t talk like a typical politician. However, if you listen more deeply and analyze it, he just spews off a lot of made up stats and “facts” and Rogan isn’t pushing back. I started listening to Rogan a few years back, but he lost me around the Covid years. Listening to this interview, he’s wise to butter up Trump if he wants the interview to go long. Trump bails on interviews if he gets challenged or fact checked. So far, Joe isn’t pushing back. He keeps agreeing with Trump and buttering him up. It’s a conversation, not a real interview, let’s be honest. Anyway, the single issue voting can be dangerous. I understand that. For example, as a meteorologist who has studied climatology, climate change is a very serious issue for me. Should I refuse to vote for Kamala because she (lukewarm) supports fracking now? Hell no. Trump is a climate change denier. He’s said some insanely stupid and false things about wind power, for example. Back to Rogan, they’re talking about sex change stuff now. It’s pretty ridiculous how the right is using the trans topic against democrats. If you support LGBTQI+ and trans rights, a vote for Trump or a defacto Trump vote (no vote or 3rd party vote) is contrary to the whole movement. Trump/the right want to go backwards and will try to erase decades of progress. It’s disgusting.

I agree with a lot of what you’re saying. I’m against the duopoly and I refuse to register as a democrat, even though on social policies I heavily lean left. The Democratic Party is a mess, but compared to Trump they seem pretty damn rational and reasonable on most issues. And I didn’t mean to label you in that camp (uneducated, mis/un-informed), but many voters are lacking info/education. I’ve engaged with many who seem to get their news from random sound bites or TikTok. That’s not how you make informed decisions. Why do so many eligible people not vote? A lot of it has to do with issues you bring up. But many people won’t vote period, including for third party candidates. I think we should have several competing parties. I’d like to think we could get somewhere with that, but it would probably take decades and there would be a lot of gridlock at first. Instead of 49% to 48% you’d see much smaller splits and it would be even harder to get a majority of people to agree on anything. Right now it’s the authoritarian/dictator-lite party vs. the corporate, often out of touch party. They both get suckered into the military-industrial complex, to some degree. What's probably most frustrating is that almost nothing ever gets done in our government because it’s one team vs. the other and very little compromise. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think there should be a 50/50 compromise between the parties. I disagree with almost everything the republicans claim to stand for. I wish there was a party on the left that aligned better with things that we both seem to have some agreement on.