-
Content Count
9,371 -
Joined
Everything posted by Mer
-
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
I mean, knowing the results sooner, regardless of what they are, is better for everyone’s sanity -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
Georgia Secretary Of State says results will be known tonight. Turnout has already exceeded 2020. -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
The predictions were correct, it seems. Republicans cannibalized their turnout during early voting. Anyone who thought that early voting number would be IN ADDITION to their usual Election Day numbers was foolish. Record turnout so far in MI and Philly. -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
This literally happens every year. -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
GOOD MORNING LANABOARDS 👋 GO VOTE 🇺🇸 I still stand by this, but I guess I could swap NC for GA… -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
@rosemead ramada https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ for the first time since early October, the model slightly favours Harris. Now go to sleep -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
Omg babes go to bed it’s 6 fuckass Republicans (or former republicans) 😭😭 -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
it’s fine I’ve been saying this could be 2012 repeat. It’s so over rn but we’ll be so back (and then repeat) -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
Tbh if Kamala can pull 50% of the Haley vote across the country she’s doing good (also, I’m pretty sure 4/5 of those Biden voters passed away 😭). Last time it was a tie was 2012 😏 -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
Biden won by 40,000 votes. Trump won by 60,000 votes in 2016. Tomorrow’s margins will most likely be equally razor thin, and a prediction hard to make with certainty. -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
Georgia was allowed to this year, I believe. We should have a picture of GA by 10pm EST tomorrow -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
I’m so glad this was your opening sentence because it made it clear that I have zero reason to read whatever else that wall of text says. -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
Likely not officially but you can look to a few signs: Polls close in VA rather early. Neither are expected to flip, VA is a blue state BUT: If VA is called prior to 8pm EST = Great sign for Harris VA called between 8pm EST and Midnight = Nail bitingly close race VA called after midnight = Great sign for Trump. -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
I want to believe but I just can’t let myself get excited 😭 -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
Please don't take offense in this in any way, but I am constantly awestruck that you are quite literally the voter who may decide the outcome of this election -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
I did not just see one of y’all complain that a transgender minor member here is being “so dramatic” for worrying that they may potentially lose access to gender affirming healthcare (which is a very really “policy” Trump is running on) -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
Another interesting thing digging into Selzer's history: in 2020, she showed Trump ahead of Biden by one point in June, the candidates were tied in Sept, and then Trump took the lead by a whopping 7 points in October. He ultimately won by 8 points. This doesn't suggest that "shy Trump voters" are the issue, but suggests that wild swings in the very final days (her October 2020 poll was the last major/top rated poll to come out, on the 31st of Oct.) are what was responsible for Biden's underperformance of other polls in 2020. So maybe the issue isn't even turnout, but it's about a fickle electorate that does a near 180 in the last week before the election. And, not to jinx it, this time she's showing it for Harris. Anyways IDK why I am digging into this, I am so bored and I just want this damn thing over. -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
CA has SMS updates for our absentee ballots, does Virginia not have the same? And is VA one of the states that doesn’t start counting absentee ballots until a few days after the election? -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
Meh, the “secret Trump” voter is an unfounded theory. It crumbles when you look at the fact that Trump won in 2016 by <70,000 votes. That’s not a sizeable number of people. His over performance in the polls is less due to shyness, but more due to mistakes in modelling who is most likely to turnout on election day. In 2016 and 2020, Democrats were 16% more likely to answer polls, and polling companies took that to suggest that Democrats were 16% more likely to show up and vote—but that turned out to be a false equivalency. There was also the issue that Republicans who did pick up the phone were more moderate, and hence more likely to vote for Biden. To counteract this theory, high rated pollsters, such as NYT/Siena have adjusted their methodology, and build their samples based on 2020s turnout. To capture the more rightwing Republicans, pollsters now ask “who do you think your neighbour is voting for?” This would’ve, maybe, worked if it was Biden vs. Trump again, but Harris has perhaps encouraged higher turnout amongst certain demographics, compared to what we saw in 2020 (plus, the Dobbs effect, which resulted in polls UNDER estimating the Democratic Party in 2022). Selzer’s poll, which shockingly showed Iowa as Harris +3 specifically did NOT do that, and showed high enthusiasm in a demographic that is being underrepresented in this years polling: 65+ Female Voters. If Selzer is correct, and her track record is excellent (she was one of the few to predict Iowa would go deep red in 2016 and 2020), most of these polls we’re seeing are underestimating the turnout of women aged 65+, who, again according to Selzer, are breaking 2:1 for Harris. -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
Even if we want to ignore her Kremlin ties, her policies are economically unsound--with no actual way to pay for them (other than "let's just cut the military budget!"). She was unable to answer the simple question "how many members of Congress are there?", showing a severe lack of knowledge in our Democracy. She, and her party, refuse to run grassroots campaigns in state elections, and slowly move their way up to federal politics--only appearing every 4/8 years to run for President. She happily takes money from GOP Pacs for her ad campaigns, showing that she cares very little about any of her supposed policies and her outrage is feigned. Then when the grift is over, and her payout from the GOP is confirmed, she happily slithers back to her Massachusetts mansion, where she probably uses her millions to buy another stupid fucking scarf. -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
This pretty highly rated Pollster just adjusted their Michigan poll from "Trump +1" to "Harris +2", admitting that they "under sampled women, African Americans, and the City of Detroit" https://x.com/MIRSnews/status/1853230990577258902 -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
Apparently he has a "shield": https://cbn.com/news/us/witches-report-their-spells-against-trump-arent-working-he-has-shield -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
They've been predicting that Trump is the "slight favorite" since October. Almost every poll and real prediction (i.e., not Polymarket) has the race as "tossup". As of now, the race (according to 538 and Nate Silver's models), has moved from "slight Trump edge" to "50-50." There's a lot of discussion around this in the prior few pages, if you're interested! -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
Omg I am currently living in Canada too (altho I am still a US citizen, and have a few more passports too ). -
Donald Trump & JD Vance Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Mer replied to That Venice Bitch's topic in World News
Except the one in Putin's wet dream