2024 US Presidential Election - Kamala Harris/Tim Walz vs. Donald Trump/JD Vance

[rosemead ramada 6,567]

5 minutes ago, Mer said:

@rosemead ramada https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ for the first time since early October, the model slightly favours Harris. 
 

Now go to sleep 

You're right, I need sleep. Especially since I definitely will be up late tomorrow

[That Venice Bitch 27,950]

On 10/22/2024 at 1:56 AM, That Venice Bitch said:

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i dunno how to define the colors but of the four stages of color shading, i used a scale of a >15% vote margin for the darkest shade, then 14.9%-5.0%, then 4.9%-1%, then <1%

yapms.com

my current prediction on how the race will turn out.. this could change before election day but idk

 

Turnout - one of the biggest factors that will decide the election - will probably be lower than 2020, but a variety of other factors point to benefiting Harris. Access to abortion is on the ballot in Arizona and Nevada, two states with heavily-contested Senate races with the Dems in each highly favored to win. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin also have the privilege of a Democratic incumbency in their three respective Senate races, which again only helps Harris/Walz.

The big flip I have here is Georgia for North Carolina. Georgia does not have huge Senate races like it did in 2020, which increased turnout and dragged Biden over the edge. I can't see that happening again this time, idk. North Carolina could very well stay Republican but it's continuously trended blue since 2016 and the gubernatorial race with the Trump-supported "Black Nazi" could line up for a Harris flip.

We'll see what happens in 2 weeks

 

My final prediction, I guess. It's disturbing how close it will be. Being on the verge of history and being obscenely aware of it is sooo freaky...

 

There's a very real possibility we end up with a 270-268 electoral college, a 50-50 Senate, and a 218-217 House

[boom like that 11,683]

Submitted my ballot earlier