Mer

well, tbh no votes are really counted on election day. projections are made off of samples of votes and statical models. in some states, they begin processing mail-in-ballots before in-person votes (AZ, CO, FL, NC), so they report those first. In other states like PA, urban centers are counted first and then rural (so it looks Blue-er than it ends up being). On election night, samples of votes from precincts are released, run through statistical models, and then a “projection” is made. Votes are then certified in early December, before the EC meets and casts their votes. hope that answers your question, and didn’t confuse you! it’s a statistical model based off of 40,000 simulations of the election. its basically like saying “okay if you play Russian Roullette 100 times, you only die in 10 scenarios”. Not really the most reassuring model but hey, it’s scientifically accurate.

also, in regards to polls: Clinton barely broke 50% in the polls in any swing states. Biden has broken 50 by a good margin. This is important, as it signifies that in 2016 there were much more last minute voters than there will be in 2020. and don’t forget: Trump won the presidency by 2 votes per precinct in MI, PA, and WI. He was never coming into 2020 with the upper hand, but things could still cut either way rn.

starting to think you weren’t joking when you said “Trump 2020”.

eh a 40% chance, and eve 10%, is still too high for my liking. keep an eye on Maine’s 2nd District, if Trump wins it it means his base is pulling through for him.

actually no, no one needs black and latino voters to win. Trump won without them in 2016. The Midwest and Florida retirees will choose this election (aka white boomers). also the fact is: Trump has gained in those communities, but Biden still holds a lead. Trump has also lost middle-aged white voters and suburban women in the midwest. Trump really can only hope for foreign interference/election day riots and fuckery to win.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/what-are-the-chances-well-know-the-next-president-on-election-night/ Nate Silver breaks it down pretty good. based on 40,000 election night simulations: there’s a 10% chance Trump wins on election night, 30% biden wins (but less than 300EC), and 60% biden wins (with more than 300EC). he says in the former 2 scenarios, we won’t know the result on election night (too close to call). So all-in-all 40% chance we won’t know winner by 3amEST Nov. 4th.

ya i never tore my ACL hahaha! and i was wide receiver

seeing them on paper makes poetry cringey to me tbh. hearing it read out loud is when I can enjoy it most. i never understood the appeal of haiku's lol tbh

She's Not Me vs. Meet Me in the Pale Moonlight

3 is the lie. 1. I was a linebacker in high school, but i sat by senior year out because i tore my ACL. 2. i speak 4 languages (although I can't write all of them). 3. i've visited every continent except for Antarctica.

don’t bring up voter shaming dude, you literally called a vote for Biden a vote for an oppressive system. that’s the definition of voter shaming. all i’m saying is your reasons for voting third party is flawed, i won’t tell you how to vote. good day!

ya sure, and writing in your dogs name on a ballot is gonna fix that lol. writing a third party on your ballot is the definition of performative activism sorry.

I respectfully disagree with many of your points. While I think our current political climate has lead to the formation of mob mentality, it is only evident on the internet. You mention that your friend will “unfriend/unfollow” people who don’t vote for Biden—this means nothing in the real world. To be a fully functioning member of society, she will still need to collaborate with Trump-voters in her everyday personal and professional life; she simply has no choice. The illusion of control over our social circles garnered by the internet is just that, an illusion. The cases of actual full-fledged “boycotting” (both personally and professionally) due to voting preferences is remarkably low, especially in as divisive times as these. I’m curious what you define as “oppression”. The crime rate has steadily declined since 1990, the 3rd US has the highest quality of education in the world, lowest infant mortality rate, and 5th highest literacy rate (99% of people over the age of 15). More so, Biden’s plans will not depress these facts (he will not oppress the growth we have been seeing for the past 30 years). He plans on making community college debt-free—a crucial step towards equal access to education—the staggered introduction of medicare for all, and a 2 trillion dollar climate change proposal. I fail to see how any of these things are oppressive. On the issue of criminal justice, Biden/Harris plan to ban for-profit-prison, and an independent Task Force on Prosecutorial Discretion, expanding the power of the Justice Department to investigate police behavior, decriminalizing marijuana, investing in the offices of public defenders, offering alternatives to detention, and more. He also supports the elimination of mandatory minimum sentencing. I concede, their records may not be stellar, but, if we were to go by what politicians said and did in the past; Trump would be pro-choice, Graham would’ve voted against Barrett, and Clinton would be behind bars. I believe people can change, for both good and bad. I think we owe to an individual to trust in their personal growth. As for Simone Weil’s, her writings almost exclusively apply to 1930s-40s France, as she concedes early in her essay that political parties work well (or, at least, better) in the UK. Also, parties provide something like a legitimate opposition. Without this “regulated rivalry” there can be no democratic accountability. Parties structure political choices for an electorate in a way that Weil’s intellectual magazines never could—and in a way that the internet cannot today. Weil’s died at 34, mainly because she failed to see what was going on in the real world: Despite being physically frail she toiled at a Renault assembly line in order to share the fate of the workers (although she was eventually fired, as she could not keep up); she lived in unheated flats and gave her money to the poor; and she volunteered on the side of the soldiers fighting Franco’s fascists in Spain (but had to be evacuated after stepping in a pot of boiling oil). During the second World War she worked for Gen de Gaulle’s Free French in London. But she also starved herself, refusing to eat more than what she (wrongly) thought to be the ration of her compatriots in Nazi-occupied France (per the Irish Times). Political parties are not perfect, but without them, there would be no accountability within democracy. I won’t tell someone which way to vote—though, should the person be willing, I would love to hear why they chose to vote a certain way. Our civic duty is simply to vote. Our duty as citizens is not, and never has been, to “undermine” the systems that largely keep us safe, no matter wether you believe they do their job properly. Anarchy is not a civic duty.

California vs. Bartender

nausea

that’s not very florida kilos of her...

i think it will be almost solid blue by 2028/2032

if Biden loses every single state Hillary did in 2016, but flips Texas, he still beats Trump. Also Texas is the last Republican stronghold--losing it would cause party reform, and hopefully a shift to the left. There are no paths to victory for any GOP presidential candidate if Texas, Cali, Or, Wa, Il, Ny, and Va are Democratic strongholds (6/7 already are).

swatting my husbands hand away. also fuck christmas, how dare you say that it's your favourite holiday. who gives a fuck about the christmas shit. do you believe marriage is for life, or are you comfortable with the potential of divorce (statistically a 50% chance)?

sunday night i watched the new Rebecca film with a ~special friend~ and we were both really fascinated by it, since i had forced told her to read the book before we watched it. when was the last time you did something completely selfish

i talk to jesus vs. hollywood

carmen vs lolita

okay i was bored and made this theory on how 9 folklore tracks are connected and tell the story of Betty and James lololol