2024 US Presidential Election - Kamala Harris/Tim Walz vs. Donald Trump/JD Vance

[Morningcrow 3,610]

Win or lose, it's heartbreaking to know half of everyone was ok with all this, could listen to the incessant incoherent rambling, all the racist talk, all the hate against women, hate against minorities, the constant threats of violence, could see the confederate and nazi flags at the rallies, could look at his poor record and his threats of what's to come and still say 'i want to be part of this, that's my guy'.

[Candy Necklace 7,285]

2 minutes ago, baddisease said:

 

She is infinitely better than anyone the Democrats and Republicans have put forward.

 

(That said, I'm viewing them through the eyes of my political philosophy.)

On paper, maybe. But her ties to Russia can’t be ignored.

[Dark Angel 201,020]

5 minutes ago, Lana Del Dufrene said:

Just asking out of curiosity. Who do guys think is going to win?

 

lizzy grant i hope!  

[Mer 61,213]

4 minutes ago, Candy Necklace said:

On paper, maybe. But her ties to Russia can’t be ignored.

 

Even if we want to ignore her Kremlin ties, her policies are economically unsound--with no actual way to pay for them (other than "let's just cut the military budget!"). She was unable to answer the simple question "how many members of Congress are there?", showing a severe lack of knowledge in our Democracy. She, and her party, refuse to run grassroots campaigns in state elections, and slowly move their way up to federal politics--only appearing every 4/8 years to run for President. She happily takes money from GOP Pacs for her ad campaigns, showing that she cares very little about any of her supposed policies and her outrage is feigned. 

 

Then when the grift is over, and her payout from the GOP is confirmed, she happily slithers back to her Massachusetts mansion, where she probably uses her millions to buy another stupid fucking scarf. 

[Lana Del Dufrene 10,126]

Just now, Dark Angel said:

 

lizzy grant i hope!  

Ngl these days she might be conservative as well 😭

[Rust Dress 40,121]

5 minutes ago, baddisease said:

 

(That said, I'm viewing them through the eyes of my political philosophy.)

 

 

because you don’t want to admit that jill stein is basically a republican, has ties to putin, and her own vp candidate supported a national abortion ban  plain ignorance

[baddisease 17,653]

Just now, Morningcrow said:

Win or lose, it's heartbreaking to know half of everyone was ok with all this, could listen to the incessant incoherent rambling, all the racist talk, all the hate against women, hate against minorities, the constant threats of violence, could see the confederate and nazi flags at the rallies, could look at his poor record and his threats of what's to come and still say 'i want to be part of this, that's my guy'.

 

America is racist as fuck and always has been. Trump is a combination of Reagan and Andrew Johnson, minus the genocide against Native Americans. We still have yet to reckon with our past and that led up to Trump now. But once America has purged itself of its past, made amends (in the form of reparations), and enters the socialist phase of development, I think America will never go back to that again.

 

Just now, Rust Dress said:

 

because you don’t want to admit that jill stein is basically a republican, has ties to putin, and her own vp candidate supported a national abortion ban  plain ignorance

 

Have you ever read the platform of the Green Party? And the entire reason I'm not supporting the Greens now is because of the shitshow her VP has been (which makes me sad, really, since he's super well-read outside of that which makes it more painful that he failed in that regard).

[baddisease 17,653]

I'm actually very scared of the Senate candidate in my state (McCormick). He's a trash, racist, queerphobic, sexist Republican. We CANNOT get him in office, especially since our other Senator (Fetterman) is a good-for-nothing "Democratic" grifter.

[Candy Necklace 7,285]

14 minutes ago, Mer said:

 

Even if we want to ignore her Kremlin ties, her policies are economically unsound--with no actual way to pay for them (other than "let's just cut the military budget!"). She was unable to answer the simple question "how many members of Congress are there?", showing a severe lack of knowledge in our Democracy. She, and her party, refuse to run grassroots campaigns in state elections, and slowly move their way up to federal politics--only appearing every 4/8 years to run for President. She happily takes money from GOP Pacs for her ad campaigns, showing that she cares very little about any of her supposed policies and her outrage is feigned. 

 

Then when the grift is over, and her payout from the GOP is confirmed, she happily slithers back to her Massachusetts mansion, where she probably uses her millions to buy another stupid fucking scarf. 

I forgot about Jill Stein not being able to answer how many members of congress there is. Yeah, the Green Party as a political party is a joke. I can see how someone could like there platform and ideologies they put out there but when you actually put them under a microscope and apply some pressure, they crumble.

 

I think I’ve said it before, but why don’t they have any kind of office in the country? They’ve been running presidential candidates for years when they don’t hold any kind of elected office at the city , county, or state level. Even the Forward party which has only existed for a couple years already has a couple elected offices. The Green Party hasn’t been able to do that in all the years they’ve been running

[baddisease 17,653]

3 minutes ago, Candy Necklace said:

 

I think I’ve said it before, but why don’t they have any kind of office in the country? They’ve been running presidential candidates for years when they don’t hold any kind of elected office at the city , county, or state level. Even the Forward party which has only existed for a couple years already has a couple elected offices. The Green Party hasn’t been able to do that in all the years they’ve been running

 

In my state, they run in every available office in both presidential and non-presidential elections.

 

I don't think it's fair to bring up that they lose when them even being on the ballot is difficult. In my state (PA), they're guaranteed a spot on the ballot but they had to fight for that. In other states, the Democrats will employ very expensive lawyers just for the purpose of keeping Greens off the ballots. They (Democrats) manipulate the rules to keep them out of debates, too. Democrats feel threatened and they wanna do damage to the GP. It surprises me since Republicans DO NOT do that to the Libertarians, who steal their votes all the time.

 

Does the GP make mistakes? Yes (like not having a better system for vetting candidates and choosing Presidential candidates). But it's not entirely their fault. Reason #778 that I would prefer a multiparty system.

[Mer 61,213]

39 minutes ago, baddisease said:

 

ngl Trump. I don't trust the polls, people lied about not supporting him in 2016.

Meh, the “secret Trump” voter is an unfounded theory. It crumbles when you look at the fact that Trump won in 2016 by <70,000 votes. That’s not a sizeable number of people. 
 

His over performance in the polls is less due to shyness, but more due to mistakes in modelling who is most likely to turnout on election day. In 2016 and 2020, Democrats were 16% more likely to answer polls, and polling companies took that to suggest that Democrats were 16% more likely to show up and vote—but that turned out to be a false equivalency. There was also the issue that Republicans who did pick up the phone were more moderate, and hence more likely to vote for Biden. 
 

To counteract this theory, high rated pollsters, such as NYT/Siena have adjusted their methodology, and build their samples based on 2020s turnout. To capture the more rightwing Republicans, pollsters now ask “who do you think your neighbour is voting for?” 
 

This would’ve, maybe, worked if it was Biden vs. Trump again, but Harris has perhaps encouraged higher turnout amongst certain demographics, compared to what we saw in 2020 (plus, the Dobbs effect, which resulted in polls UNDER estimating the Democratic Party in 2022). 
 

Selzer’s poll, which shockingly showed Iowa as Harris +3 specifically did NOT do that, and showed high enthusiasm in a demographic that is being underrepresented in this years polling: 65+ Female Voters. 
 

If Selzer is correct, and her track record is excellent (she was one of the few to predict Iowa would go deep red in 2016 and 2020), most of these polls we’re seeing are underestimating the turnout of women aged 65+, who, again according to Selzer, are breaking 2:1 for Harris. 

[Slutto 13]

i'm an american overseas, registered voter in virginia. i put my absentee ballot in the embassy's drop off box in early october and i still haven't heard anything about my vote being counted i guess my vote was suppressed. hoping VA keeps its solid blue streak this year

[rosemead ramada 6,567]

6 minutes ago, Mer said:

Meh, the “secret Trump” voter is an unfounded theory. It crumbles when you look at the fact that Trump won in 2016 by <70,000 votes. That’s not a sizeable number of people. 
 

His over performance in the polls is less due to shyness, but more due to mistakes in modelling who is most likely to turnout on election day. In 2016 and 2020, Democrats were 16% more likely to answer polls, and polling companies took that to suggest that Democrats were 16% more likely to show up and vote—but that turned out to be a false equivalency. There was also the issue that Republicans who did pick up the phone were more moderate, and hence more likely to vote for Biden. 
 

To counteract this theory, high rated pollsters, such as NYT/Siena have adjusted their methodology, and build their samples based on 2020s turnout. To capture the more rightwing Republicans, pollsters now ask “who do you think your neighbour is voting for?” 
 

This would’ve, maybe, worked if it was Biden vs. Trump again, but Harris has perhaps encouraged higher turnout amongst certain demographics, compared to what we saw in 2020 (plus, the Dobbs effect, which result in polls UNDER estimating the Democratic Party in 2022). 
 

Selzer’s poll, which shockingly showed Iowa as Harris +3 specifically did NOT do that, and showed high enthusiasm in a demographic that is being underrepresented in this years polling: 65+ Female Voters. 
 

If Selzer is correct, and her track record is excellent (she was one of the few to predict Iowa would go deep red in 2016 and 2020), most of these polls we’re seeing are underestimating the turnout of women aged 65+, who, again according to Selzer, are breaking 2:1 for Harris. 

I wonder about the polls, and I haven't really seen this discussed anywhere, because they've been doing them differently this time. In the past, the vast majority of text message polls were like "reply 1 for trump, 2 for biden, 3 for... etc" and were entirely text message based, but this cycle, 90% of the polls I've gotten have been a link you need to click on. It was never like this in 2018, 2020, or 2022. I've been ignoring all poll requests this entire time because there was just no way I'm gonna open some mysterious link from an unknown number. Almost everyone I've talked about this in person has said the same thing

[jimmyjimmycocoapuff 5,115]

https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/jill-stein-green-party-hypocrite/

Very interesting article abt Jill- apparently the green party leader isn't even that green 

[Mer 61,213]

1 minute ago, Slutto said:

i'm an american overseas, registered voter in virginia. i put my absentee ballot in the embassy's drop off box in early october and i still haven't heard anything about my vote being counted i guess my vote was suppressed. hoping VA keeps its solid blue streak this year

CA has SMS updates for our absentee ballots, does Virginia not have the same? 
 

And is VA one of the states that doesn’t start counting absentee ballots until a few days after the election? 

[baddisease 17,653]

3 minutes ago, jimmyjimmycocoapuff said:

https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/jill-stein-green-party-hypocrite/

Very interesting article abt Jill- apparently the green party leader isn't even that green 

 

My thoughts about this:

 

1. Jill Stein is fucked up for lying and making money off the destruction of the environment

2. I don't like the whitewashing of progressive history in this article

3. I'm disturbed by the fact they continue to spout the lie that the Greens only come out for presidential elections when I've personally seen them come out every election cycle.

 

But I'm extra mad about Jill's support of the military industrial complex. I thought she'd be against Western imperialism and not make money off of it.

[Slutto 13]

15 minutes ago, Mer said:

CA has SMS updates for our absentee ballots, does Virginia not have the same? 
 

And is VA one of the states that doesn’t start counting absentee ballots until a few days after the election? 

honestly i don't really know? it's all very opaque and the official virginia website hasn't really told me anything. a local news site i found says that they start counting everything on election day, so perhaps all hope is not yet lost.

[Mer 61,213]

Another interesting thing digging into Selzer's history: in 2020, she showed Trump ahead of Biden by one point in June, the candidates were tied in Sept, and then Trump took the lead by a whopping 7 points in October. He ultimately won by 8 points.

This doesn't suggest that "shy Trump voters" are the issue, but suggests that wild swings in the very final days (her October 2020 poll was the last major/top rated poll to come out, on the 31st of Oct.) are what was responsible for Biden's underperformance of other polls in 2020. 

 

So maybe the issue isn't even turnout, but it's about a fickle electorate that does a near 180 in the last week before the election. And, not to jinx it, this time she's showing it for Harris. 

 

Anyways IDK why I am digging into this, I am so bored and I just want this damn thing over. 

[That Venice Bitch 27,949]

7 minutes ago, Slutto said:

honestly i don't really know? it's all very opaque and the official virginia website hasn't really told me anything. a local news site i found says that they start counting everything on election day, so perhaps all hope is not yet lost.

Keep checking this site on and after election day! I’ll never forget in 2020 hearing about military and oversees ballots potentially deciding the winner of a state - don’t give up!

[rightofjupiter 16,493]

voted early and can't wait for this fucking thing to be over so i can be either relieved or catatonically depressed