2024 US Presidential Election - Kamala Harris/Tim Walz vs. Donald Trump/JD Vance

[rosemead ramada 6,572]

5 minutes ago, Mer said:

@rosemead ramada https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ for the first time since early October, the model slightly favours Harris. 
 

Now go to sleep 

You're right, I need sleep. Especially since I definitely will be up late tomorrow

[That Venice Bitch 27,952]

On 10/22/2024 at 1:56 AM, That Venice Bitch said:

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i dunno how to define the colors but of the four stages of color shading, i used a scale of a >15% vote margin for the darkest shade, then 14.9%-5.0%, then 4.9%-1%, then <1%

yapms.com

my current prediction on how the race will turn out.. this could change before election day but idk

 

Turnout - one of the biggest factors that will decide the election - will probably be lower than 2020, but a variety of other factors point to benefiting Harris. Access to abortion is on the ballot in Arizona and Nevada, two states with heavily-contested Senate races with the Dems in each highly favored to win. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin also have the privilege of a Democratic incumbency in their three respective Senate races, which again only helps Harris/Walz.

The big flip I have here is Georgia for North Carolina. Georgia does not have huge Senate races like it did in 2020, which increased turnout and dragged Biden over the edge. I can't see that happening again this time, idk. North Carolina could very well stay Republican but it's continuously trended blue since 2016 and the gubernatorial race with the Trump-supported "Black Nazi" could line up for a Harris flip.

We'll see what happens in 2 weeks

 

My final prediction, I guess. It's disturbing how close it will be. Being on the verge of history and being obscenely aware of it is sooo freaky...

 

There's a very real possibility we end up with a 270-268 electoral college, a 50-50 Senate, and a 218-217 House

[boom like that 11,685]

Submitted my ballot earlier 

[X8vinylScratchX 4,568]

Rutherford B Hayes Vs Samuel Tilden 2.0

[sympathyisaknife 15,962]

Mass suicide tomorrow I fear

[SonicRob 6]

https://news.sky.com/story/us-election-trump-kamala-harris-latest-live-13209921?postid=8564388#liveblog-body

[cheaptrailertrashglm 3,415]

7 hours ago, cherrytropico said:

last time it took 4 days after election day to announce the winner so the tension won’t even be relieved tomorrow, who knows how long it will take this year

I’m gonna be shitting my pants until than. I’m in line right now and the systems were down. Queue republican conspirators 

[Candy Necklace 7,288]

Well, todays the day!