2020 USA Democratic Presidential General Election

[HoneyViolence 1,063]

I’m just being realistic here. Trump is going to win and there’s nothing we can do about that. 

[Surf Noir 190,986]

is the fivethirtyeight election forecast reliable?

[past the bushes 30,906]

11 minutes ago, HoneyViolence said:

I’m just being realistic here. Trump is going to win and there’s nothing we can do about that. 

Yes there is, vote 

[Mer 53,571]

35 minutes ago, Formation said:

Is it likely that Biden could win with only the in-person voting that will be counted election day like usual, or is the assumption for a Biden win that it may only come once everything is tallied? 

 

well, tbh no votes are really counted on election day. projections are made off of samples of votes and statical models. in some states, they begin processing mail-in-ballots before in-person votes (AZ, CO, FL, NC), so they report those first. In other states like PA, urban centers are counted first and then rural (so it looks Blue-er than it ends up being). 
On election night, samples of votes from precincts are released, run through statistical models, and then a “projection” is made. Votes are then certified in early December, before the EC meets and casts their votes.  

hope that answers your question, and didn’t confuse you!

 

9 minutes ago, LemonadeHeavens said:

is the fivethirtyeight election forecast reliable?

 

it’s a statistical model based off of 40,000 simulations of the election. 

 

its basically like saying “okay if you play Russian Roullette 100 times, you only die in 10 scenarios”. Not really the most reassuring model but hey, it’s scientifically accurate. 

[Mer 53,571]

4 hours ago, HoneyViolence said:

there’s nothing we can do about that. 

 

he won by 2 votes each in a handful of precincts in 3 states. vote. 

[Formation 4,113]

26 minutes ago, Mer Boy said:

 

well, tbh no votes are really counted on election day. projections are made off of samples of votes and statical models. in some states, they begin processing mail-in-ballots before in-person votes (AZ, CO, FL, NC), so they report those first. In other states like PA, urban centers are counted first and then rural (so it looks Blue-er than it ends up being). 
On election night, samples of votes from precincts are released, run through statistical models, and then a “projection” is made. Votes are then certified in early December, before the EC meets and casts their votes.  

hope that answers your question, and didn’t confuse you!

I've always understood that all votes aren't counted til a while later + plus the December EC stuff, but I've never got the post day projection / exit-poll stuff. Thank you for enlightening me a bit on this!

[Mer 53,571]

Open if you have election Anxiety (Masterpost) 

 

Spoiler

The grey states on the map below are the closest races (swing/toss-up states). As you can see, Biden needs to win only ONE of these states to secure the presidency, whereas Trump needs to win ALL of these states. Now, Trump won ALL of these states in 2016--BUT Biden is currently ahead in 5 of them. His biggest lead is in PA where he leads Trump by 5 points (52%-47%). Trump's only lead is in Ohio where he leads Biden by 0.5 point (47.5%-48%). 

 

If the polling error in 2020 is the same as 2016: this is what the states look like:

And Biden would win 335 EC 

 

Statistics and polls are on Biden's side. But that does not mean Trump can't sweep all 6 states and even take Minnesota and Nevada (which were very close in 2016). Encourage friends and family to vote, especially if they live in AZ, PA, NC, GA, FL, and OH. 

If Tuesday night, Biden takes Florida (which will have already processed all votes by the time polls have closed--so unless its super close we'll know who won), Trump has less than a 1% chance of winning unless he flips multiple Clinton states. If Biden doesn't take Florida, he's not toast, but the battle now becomes long and drawn out--and PA may not be ready to report the finally tally until mid-to-late November. 

 

Things to look for on Election Night: 

9-11PM EST: Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Georgia should be called--if Biden wins one of these state its over. 

11PM-12AM EST: Arizona should be called--if Biden wins the state its over.

12AM-3AM EST: If PA still is "too close to call" and Trump has won all of the aforementioned states--we will not know the outcome of the election for at least a week. 

 

[howtobeaheartbreaker 1,095]

On 10/31/2020 at 3:57 PM, HoneyViolence said:

I’m just being realistic here. Trump is going to win and there’s nothing we can do about that. 

I agree with this. Unless Biden wins in a landslide on election night (without mail-in votes having been counted), I am 1000% certain that Trump is going to use his hand-picked Supreme Court to steal the election.

[rightofjupiter 16,057]

i am so fucking anxious. after the last election i have no faith in polls. just want tues. to be over already so i can know whether i need to hide under the covers and weep for a week or not.

[Mer 53,571]

5 minutes ago, rightofjupiter said:

i am so fucking anxious. after the last election i have no faith in polls. just want tues. to be over already so i can know whether i need to hide under the covers and weep for a week or not.

 

Spoiler

i hate it to say it, but it’s looking less and less likely we’ll know by Tuesday. I’m hoping we know by Friday latest. 

 

[Crimson and Clover 22,157]

does anyone else have trump supporting relatives  my whole immediate family is kinda anti-trump but whenever i go to a gathering like thanksgiving it's really awkward because it's like a known secret that i'm gay and also a socialist basically  even worse when my relatives are all hella catholic. well it's fun posting about how much i hate trump on facebook or whatever because all my relatives follow me on there 

[Mer 53,571]

Just now, JehovahThikness said:

does anyone else have trump supporting relatives 

 

my grandmother hates the man but thinks he’s better for foreign policy...

but other than that no, my family in the US lives in cali and mass so....lololol

[Crimson and Clover 22,157]

1 minute ago, Mer Boy said:

 

my grandmother hates the man but thinks he’s better for foreign policy...

but other than that no, my family in the US lives in cali and mass so....lololol

bro my relatives are from socal and i'm like  trust me socal conservatives are the scariest types of people lmfao 

[Mer 53,571]

Just now, JehovahThikness said:

bro my relatives are from socal and i'm like  trust me socal conservatives are the scariest types of people lmfao 

 

i just remembered my wealthier relatives were pro-Trump in 2016 bc of their taxes, and bc the general disposition back then was “how bad could he really be/this is just his rhetoric he’s actually not this dumb”. but now they’re never Trumpers lol 

[Party Favor 10,117]

8 minutes ago, JehovahThikness said:

does anyone else have trump supporting relatives  my whole immediate family is kinda anti-trump but whenever i go to a gathering like thanksgiving it's really awkward because it's like a known secret that i'm gay and also a socialist basically  even worse when my relatives are all hella catholic. well it's fun posting about how much i hate trump on facebook or whatever because all my relatives follow me on there 

I live in Arizona so what do you think 

speaking of Arizona, seeing us be blue is quite nice given how many ugly fucking trump parades there are. seriously, so tacky. 
 

edit: my mother and step father think Biden and Harris are not only communists, but also socialists. Idk how the fuck the switch happened since my step father wanted Bernie to get a nomination in 2016.
 

 

[baddisease 16,020]

17 minutes ago, JehovahThikness said:

does anyone else have trump supporting relatives  my whole immediate family is kinda anti-trump but whenever i go to a gathering like thanksgiving it's really awkward because it's like a known secret that i'm gay and also a socialist basically  even worse when my relatives are all hella catholic. well it's fun posting about how much i hate trump on facebook or whatever because all my relatives follow me on there 

 

my parents support Trump. I try to convince them to support progressive Presidential candidates (La Riva or Hawkins), but it doesn't work. They support the man to the end.

[Vanilla Icy 29,592]

20 minutes ago, JehovahThikness said:

does anyone else have trump supporting relatives  my whole immediate family is kinda anti-trump but whenever i go to a gathering like thanksgiving it's really awkward because it's like a known secret that i'm gay and also a socialist basically  even worse when my relatives are all hella catholic. well it's fun posting about how much i hate trump on facebook or whatever because all my relatives follow me on there 

my entire family from socal supports him except my grandmother. they're like insane about it too so i don't even bother 

[Party Favor 10,117]

3 minutes ago, baddisease said:

 

my parents support Trump. I try to convince them to support progressive Presidential candidates (La Riva or Hawkins), but it doesn't work. They support the man to the end.

you cannot reason with them. they think every thing that trump has done is lies made up by the leftists. 

[rightofjupiter 16,057]

28 minutes ago, JehovahThikness said:

bro my relatives are from socal and i'm like  trust me socal conservatives are the scariest types of people lmfao 

 

my family are socal conservatives too, they are scary af

[anwdelrey 8,964]

My mom's super liberal but my Dad is def a low key conservative who pretends to be liberal lmfao.