2024 US Presidential Election - Kamala Harris/Tim Walz vs. Donald Trump/JD Vance

[Barry 5,908]

It seems like Trump is actually going to win.

In August with bookmakers he was 1/1 meaning if you bet $1 you get $2 back if he wins but he has got shorter and shorter and is now 1/2 meaning if you put $2 on you only get $3 if he wins. Kamala went from 10/11 in August to now 17/10.

[That Venice Bitch 27,949]

12 minutes ago, Barry said:

It seems like Trump is actually going to win.

In August with bookmakers he was 1/1 meaning if you bet $1 you get $2 back if he wins but he has got shorter and shorter and is now 1/2 meaning if you put $2 on you only get $3 if he wins. Kamala went from 10/11 in August to now 17/10.

Betting markets are one of the most unreliable ways of predicting the results of an election and were famously wrong in 2016 and 2020

[baddisease 17,648]

I really don't think Harris is gonna win this round.

[Quincy 4,193]

Jill Stein’s VP Opens the Door to a National Abortion Ban

 

[Semafori 1,511]

On 10/26/2024 at 7:58 PM, Mer said:

My final, very very skeptical, prediction:

I think Texas will vote to the left of Florida, but the sun belt as a whole will vote to the right of the the rust belt. 
 

I also think Mark Robinson will weigh Trump down in NC, leading to a Harris win that falls within the “recount” margin (thankfully she’d have 276 votes without NC, anyways). 
 

Finally, even though Kari Lake is deeply unpopular, I think we’ll see surprising split ticket voting in AZ which results in a Lake loss and a Trump win. 
 

This entire election will be decided by less than 40,000 votes in NC and PA—but I think popular vote wise, Harris will outperform her polling. 

from what ive heard all over its looking like us michiganders may  just barely be a red state, or maybe ive met a very loud minority 

[Wait For Life 16,740]

On 10/26/2024 at 7:58 PM, Mer said:

My final, very very skeptical, prediction:

I think Texas will vote to the left of Florida, but the sun belt as a whole will vote to the right of the the rust belt. 
 

I also think Mark Robinson will weigh Trump down in NC, leading to a Harris win that falls within the “recount” margin (thankfully she’d have 276 votes without NC, anyways). 
 

Finally, even though Kari Lake is deeply unpopular, I think we’ll see surprising split ticket voting in AZ which results in a Lake loss and a Trump win. 
 

This entire election will be decided by less than 40,000 votes in NC and PA—but I think popular vote wise, Harris will outperform her polling. 

Mer you always give me a good laugh

[That Venice Bitch 27,949]

20 hours ago, Quincy said:

Jill Stein’s VP Opens the Door to a National Abortion Ban

 

Fuck this guy in particular for this and his transphobic comments. 

 

The UK Green Party is also calling on Jill Stein to suspend her presidential campaign and endorse Harris

[baddisease 17,648]

20 hours ago, Quincy said:

Jill Stein’s VP Opens the Door to a National Abortion Ban

 

 

Sigh. I liked this guy, too. :/

 

12 minutes ago, That Venice Bitch said:

Fuck this guy in particular for this and his transphobic comments. 

 

The UK Green Party is also calling on Jill Stein to suspend her presidential campaign and endorse Harris

 

What were his transphobic comments?

[Mer 61,208]

21 hours ago, Quincy said:

Jill Stein’s VP Opens the Door to a National Abortion Ban

 

honestly glad they’re being so open with it. May they siphon off Trump voters this time

[dexter 2,008]

there’s no way trump wins anymore he’s actually insane. PA voters you determine the election please make the right choice 

[Mer 61,208]

3 minutes ago, dexter said:

there’s no way trump wins anymore he’s actually insane. PA voters you determine the election please make the right choice 

it’s impossible to know. I think polling is completely unreliable ATP, bc we know that historically, Trump’s support has been underestimated every time he’s been on the ballot AND we know pollsters are adjusting their polls to try and not have that happen a 3rd time. We have no clue which way their error will be or how large. 
 

I’m looking at the S&P. In 96 years, if the S&P has gained in the 3 months leading to the election, the incumbent party wins; if it has lost, the opposing party wins. The only time this has been untrue was 1956, 1968, 1980, 2020. 

[That Venice Bitch 27,949]

4 minutes ago, dexter said:

there’s no way trump wins anymore he’s actually insane. PA voters you determine the election please make the right choice 

 

12 minutes ago, baddisease said:

What were his transphobic comments?

 

https://x.com/msolurin/status/1852155268999619033?s=46&t=PC_JqthBNIYi6ibjaT6EsQ

[NikoGo 60,603]

On 10/31/2024 at 1:34 PM, baddisease said:

I really don't think Harris is gonna win this round.

 

5 minutes ago, dexter said:

there’s no way trump wins anymore he’s actually insane. PA voters you determine the election please make the right choice 

The duality of lanaboards

[Mer 61,208]

Just now, NikoGo said:

 

The duality of lanaboards

the fact that it genuinely is a 50% chance either will be correct. 

[NikoGo 60,603]

Just now, Mer said:

the fact that it genuinely is a 50% chance either will be correct. 

I hate it 

 

I really don’t know who I think is going to win. I’m in PA and the trump signs I see everywhere all time time make me nervous. But I do think Harris has a really good shot.
 

I think Trump already saying PA is cheating makes me think his internals aren’t good. 

I do like that woman are outvoting men, and it’s making MAGA go crazy 

[baddisease 17,648]

I'm extremely upset, I liked the Greens and Butch Ware.

[American Whore 51,089]

i'm getting nervous about the election tbh. like anxiety. there's a ton of stupid, one issue voters who are either not voting or voting for trump and it just makes me want to crawl into a closet and sleep for 4 years 

[Mer 61,208]

1 minute ago, NikoGo said:

I do like that woman are outvoting men, and it’s making MAGA go crazy 

women have outvoted men in every election since 1980. It’s hard to say if the gender disparity will be larger this time around (compared to 2020 and 2016) during early voting. 
 

We won’t know until after the 5th. There’s a solid argument to why any bellwether can and will be wrong this time (from polling, to stock market, to turnout). 

[Dark Angel 201,016]

i'm honestly pretty nervous, regardless of the outcome

 

obviously harris winning would be ideal, but i worry about the pushback it'll receive from people who support trump, as well as (and especially) men who hold sexist viewpoints

[American Whore 51,089]

if trump wins and ends up getting another SCOTUS pick or two, i'm genuinely moving to europe. fuck that